Connect with us

Business

Nigeria’s $51bn reserves hinge on investor confidence, oil earnings – EBC

Published

on

Spread the love

By Editor

Global brokerage firm Executive Briefing Center (EBC) Financial Group has warned that Nigeria’s external reserves, which recently climbed to about $51 billion, remain exposed to volatile foreign portfolio inflows and the country’s continued dependence on oil earnings, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the recent gains.

In its latest market outlook released on Thursday, the firm said the sharp increase in reserves reflects improved investor confidence following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) foreign exchange reforms but cautioned that much of the growth has been driven by cyclical factors that could reverse if market conditions weaken.

According to EBC, sustaining the country’s reserve position will depend on attracting more long-term investment, maintaining stable oil export earnings and preserving confidence in the naira.

Nigeria’s external reserves have risen from about $32 billion in April 2024, when the country grappled with severe foreign exchange shortages, to roughly $51 billion, bringing the CBN close to its reserve target.

However, EBC noted that the improvement has been supported largely by stronger crude oil receipts and short-term foreign portfolio investments rather than more stable sources of capital such as foreign direct investment (FDI).

“Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly,” said David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group.

He noted that of the $10.37 billion in foreign investment recorded during the first quarter of 2026, the overwhelming majority consisted of short-term portfolio investments.

“A shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira could trigger significant capital outflows,” he added.

Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), EBC said Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in total foreign investment during the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.

Of that amount, $9.86 billion, representing 95.1 per cent, came through foreign portfolio investments, largely directed into Treasury Bills and other naira-denominated fixed-income securities.

By contrast, foreign direct investment amounted to just $135.08 million, accounting for only 1.3 per cent of total capital inflows.

The brokerage said although portfolio investments provide immediate support for foreign exchange reserves by increasing dollar liquidity, they remain highly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, global monetary conditions and exchange rate expectations.

The report also identified Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports as another source of vulnerability.

According to EBC, geopolitical tensions earlier in the year, particularly concerns over disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily lifted global crude oil prices, boosting Nigeria’s export earnings.

CBN balance of payments data show that the country earned $8.11 billion from crude oil exports during the first quarter of 2026.

However, Brent crude prices have since eased to around $72 per barrel, eroding much of the earlier gains.

With crude oil production constrained by OPEC production quotas, pipeline vandalism and ageing infrastructure, EBC said Nigeria has limited capacity to offset lower oil prices through increased production.

The firm therefore expects the country’s reserve position to become increasingly dependent on expanding non-oil exports and sustaining investor confidence.

EBC also highlighted the narrowing gap between Nigeria’s official and parallel foreign exchange markets as a positive development supporting investor sentiment.

The spread between both markets has narrowed to roughly ₦20–₦30 per dollar, with the official exchange rate trading around ₦1,380/$ compared with about ₦1,400/$ in the parallel market.

According to the brokerage, maintaining a credible and transparent unified exchange rate will remain critical to reassuring investors that they can repatriate funds without significant restrictions.

The report also referenced the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2026 Article IV Consultation, which urged Nigeria to reduce its reliance on short-term portfolio inflows while sustaining reforms aimed at eliminating multiple exchange rate practices.

EBC added that the CBN’s revised Foreign Exchange Manual, which became effective on June 1, should improve transparency and operational efficiency in the foreign exchange market, although investor confidence will ultimately depend on consistent policy implementation and reliable access to foreign exchange.

Nigeria’s external reserves recently climbed to $51.04 billion, their highest level in about 17 years, supported by stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved market conditions.

The reserves rose from $49.80 billion at the beginning of June, crossed the $50 billion threshold on June 5, reached $50.81 billion by June 15, and increased further to $51.04 billion three days later.

While acknowledging the progress made under the CBN’s foreign exchange reforms, EBC concluded that Nigeria’s long-term reserve strength will depend less on short-term capital inflows and more on sustained foreign direct investment, diversified exports and continued macroeconomic stability.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Customs: Salako takes charge at Lilypond Export Command, pledges stronger trade facilitation

Published

on

Spread the love

By Editor

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Lilypond Export Command, has commenced a new phase of leadership following the retirement of its Customs Area Controller (CAC), Comptroller Samuel Olusanya Ariyibi.

Ariyibi formally handed over the affairs of the Command to Deputy Comptroller Olusola Salako, who has assumed duty as Acting Customs Area Controller.

The handing-over and taking-over ceremony, held on August 24, marked the formal conclusion of Ariyibi’s tenure and followed the established administrative procedures of the NCS.

In a statement, Olusola Oke, Ariyibi expressed appreciation to the Comptroller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, the management of the Service, officers and men of the Command, and stakeholders for their support and cooperation during his tenure.

The retiring CAC attributed the achievements recorded by the Command to teamwork, professionalism, discipline and dedication, as well as sustained collaboration between Customs personnel and stakeholders.

He urged officers and men to extend the same commitment and cooperation to the new leadership, stressing the need to preserve the operational standards and gains recorded under his watch.

Ariyibi also expressed confidence in Salako’s ability to build on the foundation already established and further strengthen the mandate of the Lilypond Export Command.

Responding, the new Acting CAC, Deputy Comptroller Salako, commended Ariyibi for what he described as his dedicated and meritorious service to the NCS and contributions to the development of the Command.

Salako pledged to provide purposeful, responsive and professional leadership, with emphasis on strengthening the Command’s core responsibilities.

He identified trade facilitation, regulatory compliance, anti-smuggling operations and stakeholder engagement as key areas that would receive attention under his leadership.

The Acting CAC also called on officers and men of the Command to uphold discipline, professionalism and teamwork, noting that collective responsibility would be critical to achieving the strategic objectives of the Command and the broader mandate of the NCS.

He further solicited the continued support and cooperation of stakeholders, saying stronger collaboration would be essential to improving operational effectiveness and enhancing the Command’s contribution to Nigeria’s economic development.

The transition formally brings Ariyibi’s tenure as CAC of Lilypond Export Command to an end following his retirement from the NCS.

The Command commended the retiring comptroller for his service to the Service and the nation and wished him a fulfilling retirement. It also welcomed Salako and wished him a successful and impactful tenure as Acting CAC.

Continue Reading

Business

Rite Foods’ innovation, green energy drive earns top 50 impact recognition

Published

on

Spread the love

By Reporter

Rite Foods Limited, an indigenous food and beverage company, has been recognised among the Top 50 Nigerian Companies of Impact 2026 at the Industry Newspaper Awards.

The recognition honours companies making measurable contributions to Nigeria’s economic and social development through innovation, sustainability, employment generation and community-focused initiatives.

Rite Foods was recognised for its investments in modern manufacturing infrastructure, technology, product development and sustainable business practices, as well as its contribution to local value creation and the growth of Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry.

The Editor-in-Chief and Chief Executive Officer of Industry Newspaper, Goddie Ofose, said the award also reflects the company’s activities in employment creation, community development, environmental sustainability and product innovation.

According to him, the Top 50 Companies of Impact recognition is designed to celebrate organisations whose operations generate tangible economic, social and environmental value.

Ofose said Rite Foods stood out for its commitment to innovation, sustainability, environmental preservation and community development.

“The Top 50 Companies of Impact recognition is designed to celebrate organisations whose activities demonstrate tangible economic, social, and environmental value. Rite Foods distinguished itself through its commitment to innovation, sustainability, environmental preservation, and community development.”

He particularly cited the company’s Waste-Is-Naira (W.I.N.) programme and Riteonthebeach project, which are focused on plastic waste recovery, environmental cleanliness and public awareness.

Over the years, Rite Foods has expanded its portfolio of consumer brands, including Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, Bigi Premium Drinking Water, Sosa Fruit Drinks, Fearless Energy Drink, Rite Spicy Beef Sausage, Bigi Beef Sausage and Bigi Flex Sausage.

Through continued investment in product development, the company has introduced new flavours and packaging formats aimed at responding to changing consumer preferences while maintaining its emphasis on quality and affordability.

Ofose said the initiatives demonstrate how corporate sustainability programmes can extend beyond the factory environment to tackle environmental challenges affecting communities.

Rite Foods’ energy strategy was also highlighted as part of its sustainability efforts.

The Editor-in-Chief said about 95 per cent of the company’s energy consumption comes from cleaner energy sources, including natural gas and solar power, while diesel accounts for about five per cent.

He said the energy mix has helped the company reduce its environmental footprint while supporting operational efficiency.

Beyond environmental sustainability, Ofose also commended Rite Foods’ corporate social responsibility initiatives in education, healthcare and economic empowerment, saying they have contributed to community development across Nigeria.

Commenting on the award, the Head, Corporate Affairs and Sustainability, Rite Foods Limited, Ekuma Eze, said the recognition reflects the company’s commitment to creating value beyond its commercial activities.

“This honour is a reflection of the impact we are creating across multiple areas from innovation and human capital development to community engagement, sustainability and support for initiatives that contribute to national development.”

Eze said innovation remains central to Rite Foods’ business strategy, adding that investments in product development and manufacturing capabilities have strengthened the company’s ability to respond to changing consumer preferences and compete in Nigeria’s evolving FMCG market.

“For us, innovation is not simply about introducing new products. It is about understanding consumers, investing in people and technology, improving our processes, and creating products and solutions that deliver value. This recognition reinforces our commitment to doing more,” he said.

The latest recognition adds to a growing list of awards and industry commendations received by Rite Foods for its performance, innovation, leadership and sustainability initiatives.

The company said the recognitions reinforce its ambition to build a proudly Nigerian business operating to global standards while deepening investments in innovation, sustainability, human capital, communities and the future of Nigeria’s consumer economy.

Continue Reading

Business

Elumelu’s $500m Seplat bet doubles to over $1bn in eight months

Published

on

Spread the love

By Ambrose Nnaji

Tony Elumelu’s investment in Seplat Energy Plc has crossed the $1 billion mark in market value, less than eight months after his investment vehicle, Heirs Holdings, acquired a 20.07 percent stake in the Nigerian energy company for approximately $500 million.

The sharp appreciation in the value of the holding follows a strong rally in Seplat’s shares on both the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and London Stock Exchange (LSE), which has lifted the company’s market capitalisation to about $5.24 billion.

Heirs Holdings acquired 120.4 million Seplat shares from French energy company Maurel & Prom in December 2025, becoming the company’s largest shareholder.

Based on Seplat’s referenced share prices of N11,200.60 on the NGX and £6.47 on the LSE, the 120.4 million-share holding is now valued at approximately $1 billion, more than twice the original investment.

The gain underscores the scale of Seplat’s market rerating since the transaction and represents one of the more notable appreciation stories among major Nigerian-listed companies in 2026.

Seplat entered 2026 at N5,809 per share but quickly began a sustained rally after the Heirs Holdings transaction.

Within the first trading week of the year, the stock gained 6.2 percent and reached a new 52-week high.

By March, the share price had moved above N9,000, before crossing the N10,000 threshold in April.

Seplat became the first stock listed on the Nigerian Exchange to trade above N10,000 per share, closing at N10,450 on April 14 and recording a year-to-date gain of almost 80 percent at the time.

The stock has since moved above N11,000, putting its 2026 gain at more than 90 percent from its year-end 2025 level.

For Heirs Holdings, the sustained appreciation has effectively transformed the $500 million acquisition into a holding worth about $1 billion at the referenced market prices.

The rise in Seplat’s share price has coincided with a significant expansion in the company’s underlying business following its acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU).

The transaction transformed Seplat’s production scale and significantly expanded its offshore portfolio.

The impact was evident in the company’s 2025 financial performance, its first full year reflecting the enlarged asset base.

Revenue increased 144 percent to $2.73 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 137 percent to $1.28 billion.

Operating cash flow increased 276 percent to $1.17 billion, while net debt declined 25 percent to $673.3 million.

Seplat also increased its total dividend for 2025 by 52 percent to 25 cents per share.

The company’s 2026 performance has further strengthened the case for the market’s rerating.

In the first half of 2026, Seplat generated N2.50 trillion in revenue, while profit before tax rose 74 percent to N790.4 billion.

Profit after tax increased sharply from N42.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2025 to N225.5 billion.

The company also continued to strengthen its balance sheet.

Interest-bearing borrowings declined from about N1.44 trillion at the end of 2025 to N1.11 trillion by June, while cash increased to N598.3 billion.

The combination of higher earnings, stronger cash generation and lower leverage has provided additional support for the market’s more bullish assessment of the company.

Seplat’s enlarged asset portfolio has also translated into higher production.

Average working-interest production reached 139,509 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the first half of 2026, compared with 134,492 boepd a year earlier.

Offshore assets accounted for more than half of total production, while natural gas liquids production more than doubled to 8,459 barrels per day.

The change represents a significant shift in the company’s production profile.

In 2025, average production had already risen to 131,506 boepd from 52,947 boepd in 2024 following the first full year of offshore consolidation after the MPNU acquisition.

The enlarged production base has therefore given Seplat greater diversification across assets and revenue streams than it had before the transaction.

Elumelu’s increasing involvement in Seplat adds another dimension to the investment.

After joining the company’s board in January 2026, he is expected to become chairman from January 1, 2027.

That would place Seplat’s largest shareholder in a more direct leadership position as the company seeks to consolidate the gains from the MPNU acquisition and pursue further growth.

The development also deepens Elumelu’s involvement in the Nigerian energy industry, alongside his interests across banking, power and other sectors through his investment holdings.

However, the sustained value of the Heirs Holdings investment will ultimately depend on Seplat’s ability to maintain production growth, manage costs, generate cash and translate its enlarged asset base into sustainable shareholder returns.

For now, the movement from an approximately $500 million investment to a stake worth around $1 billion highlights the scale of the market’s reassessment of Seplat since the MPNU acquisition.

More importantly, the company’s stronger earnings, higher production and improving balance sheet suggest that the share-price rerating is increasingly being supported by improvements in the underlying business rather than market sentiment alone.

Continue Reading

Trending