By Editor
Global brokerage firm Executive Briefing Center (EBC) Financial Group has warned that Nigeria’s external reserves, which recently climbed to about $51 billion, remain exposed to volatile foreign portfolio inflows and the country’s continued dependence on oil earnings, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the recent gains.
In its latest market outlook released on Thursday, the firm said the sharp increase in reserves reflects improved investor confidence following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) foreign exchange reforms but cautioned that much of the growth has been driven by cyclical factors that could reverse if market conditions weaken.
According to EBC, sustaining the country’s reserve position will depend on attracting more long-term investment, maintaining stable oil export earnings and preserving confidence in the naira.
Nigeria’s external reserves have risen from about $32 billion in April 2024, when the country grappled with severe foreign exchange shortages, to roughly $51 billion, bringing the CBN close to its reserve target.
However, EBC noted that the improvement has been supported largely by stronger crude oil receipts and short-term foreign portfolio investments rather than more stable sources of capital such as foreign direct investment (FDI).
“Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly,” said David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group.
He noted that of the $10.37 billion in foreign investment recorded during the first quarter of 2026, the overwhelming majority consisted of short-term portfolio investments.
“A shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira could trigger significant capital outflows,” he added.
Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), EBC said Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in total foreign investment during the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.
Of that amount, $9.86 billion, representing 95.1 per cent, came through foreign portfolio investments, largely directed into Treasury Bills and other naira-denominated fixed-income securities.
By contrast, foreign direct investment amounted to just $135.08 million, accounting for only 1.3 per cent of total capital inflows.
The brokerage said although portfolio investments provide immediate support for foreign exchange reserves by increasing dollar liquidity, they remain highly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, global monetary conditions and exchange rate expectations.
The report also identified Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports as another source of vulnerability.
According to EBC, geopolitical tensions earlier in the year, particularly concerns over disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily lifted global crude oil prices, boosting Nigeria’s export earnings.
CBN balance of payments data show that the country earned $8.11 billion from crude oil exports during the first quarter of 2026.
However, Brent crude prices have since eased to around $72 per barrel, eroding much of the earlier gains.
With crude oil production constrained by OPEC production quotas, pipeline vandalism and ageing infrastructure, EBC said Nigeria has limited capacity to offset lower oil prices through increased production.
The firm therefore expects the country’s reserve position to become increasingly dependent on expanding non-oil exports and sustaining investor confidence.
EBC also highlighted the narrowing gap between Nigeria’s official and parallel foreign exchange markets as a positive development supporting investor sentiment.
The spread between both markets has narrowed to roughly ₦20–₦30 per dollar, with the official exchange rate trading around ₦1,380/$ compared with about ₦1,400/$ in the parallel market.
According to the brokerage, maintaining a credible and transparent unified exchange rate will remain critical to reassuring investors that they can repatriate funds without significant restrictions.
The report also referenced the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2026 Article IV Consultation, which urged Nigeria to reduce its reliance on short-term portfolio inflows while sustaining reforms aimed at eliminating multiple exchange rate practices.
EBC added that the CBN’s revised Foreign Exchange Manual, which became effective on June 1, should improve transparency and operational efficiency in the foreign exchange market, although investor confidence will ultimately depend on consistent policy implementation and reliable access to foreign exchange.
Nigeria’s external reserves recently climbed to $51.04 billion, their highest level in about 17 years, supported by stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved market conditions.
The reserves rose from $49.80 billion at the beginning of June, crossed the $50 billion threshold on June 5, reached $50.81 billion by June 15, and increased further to $51.04 billion three days later.
While acknowledging the progress made under the CBN’s foreign exchange reforms, EBC concluded that Nigeria’s long-term reserve strength will depend less on short-term capital inflows and more on sustained foreign direct investment, diversified exports and continued macroeconomic stability.