By Reporter

Oil prices face renewed geopolitical risk after Iran ruled out resuming direct negotiations with the United States, leaving the reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz uncertain and threatening to revive the risk premium that had driven crude sharply higher during the latest Middle East conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would not resume direct negotiations with Washington until the United States addresses what Iran describes as violations of an earlier understanding between the two countries.

The latest diplomatic setback comes after a sharp retreat in crude prices, with Brent falling by more than $16 per barrel over eight trading sessions as hopes of de-escalation eased fears of a prolonged disruption to oil flows through Hormuz.

The developments now put the durability of that price correction under renewed scrutiny.

Araghchi said Iran was not currently engaged in direct negotiations with Washington, insisting that the United States must first address what Tehran regards as violations of the Memorandum of Understanding.

Messages, he said, were being exchanged through intermediaries, while Oman continued efforts to broker an arrangement aimed at facilitating safer maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

“As long as the American violation of the Memorandum of Understanding continues and the US does not make amends for its violations, there is no possibility of resuming negotiations,” Araghchi was cited as saying by Iranian state television.

The Iranian position contrasts with statements from US Vice President JD Vance, who indicated that Washington believed progress had been made in discussions, although he acknowledged uncertainty over whether Tehran would ultimately accept US demands.

Oman, which has played a central role in the mediation efforts, has said its discussions with Iran were progressing in a positive and constructive atmosphere and called for restraint around the strait to create room for diplomacy.

The immediate concern for the oil market is not simply whether Washington and Tehran resume talks, but whether a credible arrangement can be reached to restore predictable shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway is one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for crude supplies, tanker movements and global energy prices.

Iran’s conditions for a broader reopening have included an end to US threats and military action, an end to the conflict, withdrawal of US naval and air forces from around Iran, compensation for war-related damages, the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

Tehran has also rejected Washington’s characterisation of the current contacts as direct negotiations, stressing that intermediaries are carrying messages between the two sides.

The distinction is significant for oil markets because a diplomatic breakthrough could accelerate the normalisation of shipping and remove part of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. Conversely, a prolonged impasse could trigger another wave of risk buying.

Recent developments have underscored that distinction. Iran and Oman have been working towards a maritime arrangement, with Tehran indicating that such an agreement could help establish shipping lanes. However, Iran has continued to insist that a broader reopening of Hormuz depends on its demands being addressed by Washington.

The uncertainty comes after crude prices staged a substantial correction from the highs reached during the conflict.

Checks in early August showed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opening 5.24percent lower at $80.23 per barrel, while Brent fell to $83.86 per barrel, extending a sell-off that had erased much of the conflict-driven increase.

That decline reflected growing expectations that diplomatic efforts could prevent a prolonged disruption to global oil supplies.

The latest Iranian position, however, introduces a fresh layer of uncertainty.

If negotiations stall and the reopening of Hormuz is delayed, traders could once again price a larger geopolitical risk premium into crude. The impact would depend on the duration and severity of the disruption, the availability of alternative export routes and the ability of major producers to compensate for lost or delayed supplies.

For Nigeria, another sustained rise in crude prices would produce both benefits and risks.

Higher international oil prices would strengthen government revenues and potentially improve fiscal conditions, particularly because crude remains central to Nigeria’s export earnings and public finances.

Despite the recent correction, oil prices have remained above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. A sustained premium above the benchmark could provide additional revenue if Nigeria maintains or increases crude production.

Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, petrol prices have risen considerably across Nigeria. Pump prices that were around N770–N800 per litre at many filling stations before the latest escalation have climbed to as high as N1,300 in some locations.

The increase has fed into transportation costs and added to inflationary pressures across the economy.

A renewed crude price rally could therefore create a policy dilemma for Nigeria: higher oil prices could strengthen government revenues while simultaneously increasing the cost pressures facing households and businesses.

For an economy still adjusting to petrol-market reforms and higher living costs, the longer the Hormuz uncertainty persists, the more complicated that trade-off becomes.

The immediate focus for the oil market is therefore shifting from the size of the recent price correction to the durability of the diplomatic progress behind it.

Until there is greater clarity on US-Iran relations and a credible framework for the safe and sustained movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of another sharp move in crude prices remains firmly on the table.

Editorial note: I would use “Hormuz reopening remains uncertain” rather than “Hormuz stays uncertain” in the headline. It is more precise and gives the story a stronger market angle. Also, the latest reporting indicates that Iran and Oman are nearing a shipping arrangement, so the story should distinguish between a limited shipping arrangement and a full reopening of Hormuz.

By Ambrose Nnaji

Senior executives of global investment banking and financial services firm Goldman Sachs have toured the Dangote industrial complex in Lagos, describing the scale, ambition and execution of the group’s investments in refining, petrochemicals and fertiliser as “extraordinary.”

The visit by the Goldman Sachs delegation, led by Anthony Gutman, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs International and Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, provides a high-profile international investor perspective on one of Africa’s largest private-sector industrial projects.

The delegation toured the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, the 700,000 barrels-per-day refinery, Dangote Fertiliser Limited and associated infrastructure during its visit to Nigeria.

Speaking after the tour, the Goldman Sachs executives praised the scale and execution of the integrated industrial complex.

“It is extraordinary what Dangote and the whole organisation have achieved. The ambition, the scale of the project, the quality of the project and the culture of the people is very impressive,” the delegation said.

The visit comes as Dangote Industries signals that its growth ambitions extend beyond the current investment cycle, with the group considering additional investments and acquisitions after 2030.

‘This is only the beginning’

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, said the scale of the company’s industrial investments could only be fully appreciated through a physical inspection of the facilities.

“No matter how we try to explain what we have built, you cannot fully appreciate it until you see it,” Dangote said.

“But this is only the beginning. We need to look beyond 2030. The next phase of our journey will include new investments and acquisitions as we continue to scale the business.”

The comments signal a potential new phase in Dangote Industries’ expansion strategy, moving beyond the completion and ramp-up of its major industrial projects toward further acquisitions and investments.

The group has invested heavily in Nigeria’s downstream energy and industrial sectors, most notably through its refinery, fertiliser plant and petrochemical ambitions.

$100bn revenue ambition

Dangote also said the group’s internal financial modelling had strengthened management’s confidence that its target of generating $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030 was achievable.

According to him, the projections were based on conservative assumptions, giving management greater confidence in the group’s long-term growth prospects.

The target would represent a significant expansion of Dangote Industries’ scale and would place the group among the largest African-origin corporate enterprises by revenue.

Dangote said the company’s growth expectations had also been reinforced by employee participation in the recent private placement involving the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

He said the level of employee participation reflected confidence within the organisation in the refinery’s prospects and the broader growth strategy of the group.

A test of Africa’s industrial capacity

The Goldman Sachs visit also highlights the growing attention being paid by international financial institutions to large-scale industrial projects in Africa.

The Dangote refinery represents an attempt to move beyond Nigeria’s traditional role as a crude oil exporter by adding substantial domestic refining capacity and creating an integrated platform spanning crude processing, petrochemicals and fertiliser production.

The broader economic significance lies in the potential to retain more value from Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources within the domestic economy.

A fully integrated industrial complex can also create linkages across logistics, manufacturing, agriculture, energy and financial services, while reducing dependence on imports of refined petroleum products and fertiliser.

For investors, however, the scale of such projects also brings significant questions around capital requirements, operating efficiency, market demand, foreign exchange exposure and the ability to sustain returns over the long term.

The Goldman Sachs assessment therefore comes at an important point in the evolution of Dangote’s industrial strategy as the group moves from building major assets to maximising their commercial potential.

Global finance delegation

The Goldman Sachs delegation included Adib N. Zouein, Co-Head of EMEA Emerging Markets Regional Sales and Head of the Middle East and North Africa region for Global Banking & Markets Public; Ryad Yousuf, Global Head of FICC Sales Strats and Structuring; and Jimi Adesanya, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Sales, excluding South Africa.

They were received by Dangote and senior executives of the group, including Group Vice President, Oil & Gas, Devakumar Edwin; Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, David Bird; and Group Executive Director, Oil & Gas, Fatima Aliko Dangote.

Other senior officials present included Chief of Staff to the President/CEO, Ibrahim Dikko; Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina; Group Chief Economist, Dr Hassan Mahmud; Group Chief Strategy Officer, Aliyu Suleiman; and Head of Administration, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Musa Bala.

The engagement comes as Dangote Industries seeks to deepen its position as one of Africa’s most significant industrial groups and potentially expand its footprint through new investments and acquisitions.

For Nigeria, the bigger question is whether the industrial capacity being created can translate into sustained production, exports, employment, foreign-exchange earnings and stronger domestic supply chains.

For Dangote, the Goldman Sachs visit offered another international endorsement of the scale of the investment already made. But the group’s stated ambition beyond 2030 suggests that the next test may be less about what it has built and more about how much additional economic value it can create from it.

L-R:
Co-Head of EMEA Emerging Markets Regional Sales and head of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for Global Banking & Markets – Public, Adib N Zouein; Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Sales (ex-SA) cross-asset in the Global Banking & Markets – Public, Jimi Adesanya; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas, Dangote Industries Limited; Devakumar Edwin; President/CE, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote; Co-chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs International (GSI) and global co-head of Investment Banking, Anthony Gutman; Global head of FICC Sales Strats and Structuring, Ryad Yousuf; Managing Director/ CEO, Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird during the Strategic Visit of Goldman Sachs International (GSI) to Dangote Refinery Petroleum and Fertiliser Plant, in Lagos.

By Reporter

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved a 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil production quotas for September, extending its phased supply restoration strategy for a fourth consecutive month as the alliance gradually unwinds production cuts introduced in 2023.

The decision was reached during a virtual ministerial meeting involving eight key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

With the September adjustment, OPEC+ will have completed the scheduled reversal of one layer of voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023 to stabilize the global oil market following concerns over weakening demand and oversupply.

The alliance is expected to maintain existing production quotas for the remainder of the year while monitoring global demand, inventories and geopolitical developments that continue to influence crude markets.

The latest increase comes despite persistent tensions in the Middle East, particularly around Iran, which continue to create uncertainty over regional oil production and exports. However, the producer group has maintained that the approved quota increases have had only a limited impact on actual global supply because several member countries remain unable to produce up to their allocated volumes.

Technical constraints, underinvestment, sanctions and disruptions affecting oil flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have prevented some producers from fully utilizing their quotas, leaving Saudi Arabia with most of the alliance’s effective spare production capacity.

The September adjustment therefore provides additional room for major Gulf producers to increase output should regional supply conditions improve, although analysts expect OPEC+ to pause further quota increases after September unless market conditions change significantly.

The September increase follows identical production quota increases approved for June, July and August, making it the fourth straight monthly increase of 188,000 bpd under OPEC+’s supply restoration programme.

Although the alliance has now largely reversed the production cuts announced in 2023—estimated at roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, excluding the United Arab Emirates’ separate allocation—actual production has risen by a much smaller volume because many member countries lack sufficient spare capacity.

For Nigeria, the latest OPEC+ decision comes at a time when the country’s upstream sector is showing its strongest production performance in years.

According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced an average of 1.56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2026, the country’s highest monthly output since April 2020.

June also marked the second consecutive month Nigeria exceeded its assigned OPEC production quota after averaging 1.53 million bpd in May. Prior to that, the last time the country surpassed its quota was in July 2025, reflecting sustained improvements in production efficiency, new field contributions and intensified efforts to curb crude oil theft.

The continued restoration of OPEC+ production quotas could further support Nigeria’s ambition of achieving the 1.84 million bpd crude oil production benchmark contained in the 2026 Federal Government budget. Higher production would strengthen oil export earnings, improve foreign exchange inflows and boost government revenues.

Improved upstream performance is already translating into stronger financial results for the national oil company.

NNPC Limited reported a profit after tax of ₦535 billion in June 2026, representing a 15.8 per cent increase from ₦462 billion recorded in May, according to the company’s latest monthly financial and operational report. Revenue also rose to ₦4.39 trillion during the month, with June delivering NNPC’s strongest monthly profit since August 2025.

For Nigeria, the convergence of rising crude production, stronger corporate earnings and OPEC+’s continued supply restoration reinforces the government’s strategy of leveraging higher oil output to strengthen fiscal revenues, improve foreign exchange earnings and support the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the 2026 budget.

Beyond the immediate production increase, the OPEC+ decision also signals growing confidence that global oil demand remains resilient enough to absorb additional supplies. For Nigeria, that presents an opportunity to consolidate recent production gains, attract further upstream investment and maximize revenues while international crude prices remain relatively supportive.