OPEC+ approves fourth consecutive 188,000 bpd production hike for September as Nigeria sustains output growth

By Reporter

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved a 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil production quotas for September, extending its phased supply restoration strategy for a fourth consecutive month as the alliance gradually unwinds production cuts introduced in 2023.

The decision was reached during a virtual ministerial meeting involving eight key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

With the September adjustment, OPEC+ will have completed the scheduled reversal of one layer of voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023 to stabilize the global oil market following concerns over weakening demand and oversupply.

The alliance is expected to maintain existing production quotas for the remainder of the year while monitoring global demand, inventories and geopolitical developments that continue to influence crude markets.

The latest increase comes despite persistent tensions in the Middle East, particularly around Iran, which continue to create uncertainty over regional oil production and exports. However, the producer group has maintained that the approved quota increases have had only a limited impact on actual global supply because several member countries remain unable to produce up to their allocated volumes.

Technical constraints, underinvestment, sanctions and disruptions affecting oil flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have prevented some producers from fully utilizing their quotas, leaving Saudi Arabia with most of the alliance’s effective spare production capacity.

The September adjustment therefore provides additional room for major Gulf producers to increase output should regional supply conditions improve, although analysts expect OPEC+ to pause further quota increases after September unless market conditions change significantly.

The September increase follows identical production quota increases approved for June, July and August, making it the fourth straight monthly increase of 188,000 bpd under OPEC+’s supply restoration programme.

Although the alliance has now largely reversed the production cuts announced in 2023—estimated at roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, excluding the United Arab Emirates’ separate allocation—actual production has risen by a much smaller volume because many member countries lack sufficient spare capacity.

For Nigeria, the latest OPEC+ decision comes at a time when the country’s upstream sector is showing its strongest production performance in years.

According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced an average of 1.56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June 2026, the country’s highest monthly output since April 2020.

June also marked the second consecutive month Nigeria exceeded its assigned OPEC production quota after averaging 1.53 million bpd in May. Prior to that, the last time the country surpassed its quota was in July 2025, reflecting sustained improvements in production efficiency, new field contributions and intensified efforts to curb crude oil theft.

The continued restoration of OPEC+ production quotas could further support Nigeria’s ambition of achieving the 1.84 million bpd crude oil production benchmark contained in the 2026 Federal Government budget. Higher production would strengthen oil export earnings, improve foreign exchange inflows and boost government revenues.

Improved upstream performance is already translating into stronger financial results for the national oil company.

NNPC Limited reported a profit after tax of ₦535 billion in June 2026, representing a 15.8 per cent increase from ₦462 billion recorded in May, according to the company’s latest monthly financial and operational report. Revenue also rose to ₦4.39 trillion during the month, with June delivering NNPC’s strongest monthly profit since August 2025.

For Nigeria, the convergence of rising crude production, stronger corporate earnings and OPEC+’s continued supply restoration reinforces the government’s strategy of leveraging higher oil output to strengthen fiscal revenues, improve foreign exchange earnings and support the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the 2026 budget.

Beyond the immediate production increase, the OPEC+ decision also signals growing confidence that global oil demand remains resilient enough to absorb additional supplies. For Nigeria, that presents an opportunity to consolidate recent production gains, attract further upstream investment and maximize revenues while international crude prices remain relatively supportive.