By Ambrose Nnaji

Nigeria needs between $30 billion and $50 billion in fresh oil and gas investment by 2030 to expand processing capacity, boost gas-based industries, increase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply and commercialise flare gas, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said.

The Authority also disclosed that petrol imports fell by about 54 per cent in a year, from 22.1 million litres per day in September 2025 to 10.2 million litres per day in September 2026, as domestic refineries increased their contribution to the country’s fuel supply.

Speaking ahead of the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2026, in Lagos, the Authority Chief Executive, Rabiu Umar, said domestic refineries supplied approximately 74 per cent of petrol received into the market in September, compared with about 44 per cent in September 2025.

The figures highlight the growing contribution of local refining to Nigeria’s fuel supply, although the regulator warned that rising exports, inadequate strategic reserves and dependence on a major refinery present challenges to sustaining energy security.

Umar said Nigeria’s refining expansion had helped the country withstand international supply pressures, including disruptions associated with conflict in the Gulf and crude oil prices approaching $100 per barrel.

“Secure energy is energy we produce, move, store and price well ourselves,” he said, adding that the economic benefits would be greater when more value from the country’s energy resources remained within domestic and African economies.

However, the NMDPRA chief stressed that increased local production must be accompanied by adequate inventories, diversified supply sources, reliable crude feedstock and investment in transportation and storage infrastructure.

Despite the growth in domestic refining, the Authority said petrol consumption exceeded fresh supply in September, with the shortfall met from existing stocks.

According to the presentation, petrol supply averaged 38.7 million litres per day against consumption of 44.4 million litres per day.

Petrol stock cover stood at approximately 24 days, below the 30-day threshold, while cooking gas inventories were tighter, at about 16 days.

Diesel and aviation fuel stocks were more comfortable, with cover of approximately 50 days and 53 days respectively.

The Authority is targeting 30 to 45 days of product sufficiency as part of measures to strengthen the country’s capacity to withstand international price shocks, supply disruptions and national emergencies.

It plans to operationalise a National Strategic Stock programme through a pilot involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) at designated depots in Ibadan, Enugu and Suleja.

The initiative is expected to provide an additional buffer against disruptions and improve the country’s capacity to respond to sudden changes in fuel supply.

The regulator also plans to measure actual consumption at filling stations to improve demand forecasting and ensure that supply planning reflects market realities.

Umar acknowledged that domestic petrol volumes fell in September from their August peak as refinery exports increased.

He said the Authority would continue working with refiners and traders to ensure that growing exports did not undermine domestic availability.

The NMDPRA also reaffirmed that import licences would remain available to qualified operators under published, merit-based criteria, signalling that the expansion of local refining would not automatically exclude fuel importers from the market.

The presentation also highlighted the growing role of domestic refineries in supplying diesel and aviation fuel.

Domestic refineries accounted for approximately 93 per cent of diesel receipts in September, although total diesel receipts fell to 8.7 million litres per day, their lowest level in 13 months.

The Authority attributed the decline partly to high prices weighing on imports and domestic evacuation, adding that the trend required close monitoring.

Aviation turbine kerosene receipts, however, rose to 3.3 million litres per day in September, six per cent above August’s level.

The regulator said the expansion of domestic refining could reduce exposure to external supply disruptions and bring fuel supply closer to local consumers, including airlines and industrial users.

For businesses, the sustainability of these gains will depend on reliable product availability, competitive pricing and efficient transportation from refineries to consumption centres.

The NMDPRA said active domestic refining capacity had increased to approximately 682,000 barrels per day, compared with about 5,000 barrels per day in 2021.

The LPG market has also expanded, with supply rising by 50 per cent from 1.2 million metric tonnes in 2021 to 1.8 million metric tonnes.

The number of LPG depots increased from 28 to 35, while the number of compressed natural gas (CNG) compression facilities rose from 17 to 43.

CNG and liquefied natural gas autogas stations increased from 16 to 101 over the period, while gas distribution infrastructure expanded to 10 licensed operators, covering 692 kilometres and attracting reported investment of $639 million.

The Authority said the sector had avoided nationwide supply disruptions since deregulation, while the quality of petrol supplied in the country had improved to meet the 50 parts per million sulphur limit.

It added that monthly market data was being published to improve transparency and provide industry operators with a common basis for assessing market developments.

The NMDPRA, however, does not set pump prices, which remain a major concern for households and businesses.

Its stated priorities include expanding supply, promoting fair competition, improving product quality and ensuring that consumers have access to reliable market information.

Beyond refining, the regulator identified gas processing, transportation, fertiliser production and LPG supply as major investment opportunities.

Nigeria has approximately 215 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves and 37 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, according to the presentation.

Yet the country uses only about 52 per cent of its installed gas processing capacity of 16.2 billion cubic feet per day, leaving considerable scope for investment in infrastructure and utilisation.

The NMDPRA said the country’s gas sector would require additional capital to support industrial expansion, improve energy access and commercialise resources that are currently wasted through flaring.

Major infrastructure projects include the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline, the Oben-Obiafu-Obrikom (OB3) pipeline and the ELPS midline compressor.

The OB3 pipeline and ELPS midline compressor were reported to be nearing completion, while the AKK pipeline was more than 80 per cent complete as of September 2026.

When the relevant projects become operational, gas transportation capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 billion cubic feet per day to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day.

The expanded network is expected to improve the movement of gas from southern production areas to northern markets, supporting power generation, manufacturing and other industrial activities.

The regulator also highlighted investment opportunities in depots, jetties, coastal shipping and the rehabilitation of product pipelines through public-private partnerships.

It said the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund would form part of the mechanisms for supporting infrastructure development.

Despite growth in the LPG market, demand continues to exceed supply.

The Authority estimated daily LPG consumption at 5,200 tonnes, against supply of approximately 4,700 tonnes, representing a demand-supply gap of about 500 tonnes per day.

The regulator said the imbalance presented opportunities for investors in processing, storage, distribution and transportation infrastructure.

It also identified expanding access to LPG as an important component of the country’s energy transition, particularly in replacing traditional cooking fuels.

The NMDPRA’s target is to increase LPG market capacity from 1.8 million metric tonnes annually to four million metric tonnes by 2030.

Other planned expansions include increasing Nigeria LNG’s capacity from 22 million to 30 million metric tonnes annually through Train 7, and expanding Indorama’s fertiliser capacity from 4.38 million to 5.84 million metric tonnes annually.

The Authority said these projects could strengthen domestic value addition, create jobs and support regional trade if backed by adequate infrastructure and predictable regulation.

As part of its reform agenda, the Authority announced the launch of Revision 2 of the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code at the opening ceremony of OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week on October 26.

The code establishes rules governing access to gas transportation infrastructure, capacity booking, nominations, network balancing, measurement and gas quality.

The revised framework is intended to provide clearer and more predictable rules for companies transporting gas through the network.

According to the presentation, the code builds on the original framework introduced in 2020 and the first revision in 2024.

The Authority said the latest revision was designed to improve access to the gas network, support transparent and cost-reflective transportation tariffs, and strengthen measurement at entry and exit points.

It also reported that imbalance on the Western Network had fallen by about 30 per cent in the first half of 2026.

The regulator said the revised framework could provide an initial basis for developing rules for a proposed trans-African pipeline network, helping to improve predictability for shippers, investors and partner countries.

The success of the framework will depend on effective implementation, transparent access arrangements and the confidence of companies investing in gas transportation and related infrastructure.

The Authority said it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission to coordinate enforcement and improve consumer protection.

It has also consulted stakeholders on draft regulations aimed at preventing anti-competitive practices in the midstream and downstream petroleum sectors.

On product quality, the regulator said it was upgrading its laboratories to international ISO standards and working with Bureau Veritas and Ace Energy and Power Solutions towards establishing a National Reference Laboratory.

The Authority said the initiatives formed part of Project NEXUS, its programme to strengthen regulatory effectiveness through a firm, fair and fast approach.

It also plans to expand gas distribution licensing and improve transparency through regular publication of market data.

The NMDPRA said Nigeria’s progress in domestic refining would have greater economic value if supported by stronger regional cooperation.

Despite producing approximately five million barrels of crude oil per day, Africa imports about 70 per cent of the refined petroleum products it consumes, according to figures cited in the presentation.

The Authority identified five priorities for improving the continent’s energy security: refining more African crude within Africa, developing shared infrastructure, harmonising regulations, mobilising African capital and coordinating strategic reserves.

It proposed a phased approach to regulatory convergence in West Africa.

The first phase, covering 2026 and 2027, would focus on enforcing the Economic Community of West African States’ 50 ppm fuel standard, establishing regional data-sharing arrangements and conducting joint product-quality checks at borders.

The second phase, covering 2028 and 2029, would prioritise mutual recognition of licences and certificates, common cross-border pipeline and storage rules, and the application of African Continental Free Trade Area arrangements to refined products.

By 2030, the proposed framework envisages coordinated regional strategic stocks, a pathway towards cleaner 10 ppm AFRI-6 fuels and a credible West African reference price.

Umar said regulatory convergence should not prevent individual countries from protecting their domestic markets.

He argued that a more integrated regional market could reduce duplication, improve supply resilience and create a larger commercial base for African refiners and infrastructure investors.

The Authority identified five priorities for the coming period: strengthening supply security, ensuring reliable crude feedstock, expanding infrastructure, attracting investment and improving transparency.

It said these would be pursued through strategic stock development, the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, the Naira-for-Crude initiative, public-private partnerships and more efficient licensing.

Umar called on refiners to prioritise domestic supply, while urging marketers and logistics operators to invest in storage and maintain fair business practices.

He also appealed to financiers, host communities, security agencies and African partners to support the infrastructure and regulatory reforms required to strengthen the sector.

For Nigeria, the challenge is no longer simply to increase domestic refining. It is to ensure that higher production translates into reliable fuel availability, competitive markets, stronger industrial output and investment returns.

The regulator’s position is that the country’s expanding refining capacity and gas resources can support a more resilient energy market. Delivering that outcome, however, will require sustained investment, adequate strategic stocks, dependable infrastructure and rules that give businesses confidence to commit long-term capital.

By Editor

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and Dangote Group have called for a shift from regulatory compliance to sustainable investment in technology, financing and indigenous industrial capacity to deepen local participation in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

The organisations said developing reliable local supply chains, transferring technical expertise and improving access to finance were critical to ensuring that investments in major industrial facilities generated lasting economic benefits for Nigeria.

The call was made at a strategic retreat of the NCDMB/Dangote Joint Technical Committee (JTC), in Lagos, themed “Beyond Compliance: Partnering for Sustainable Nigerian Content Development.”

The meeting brought together stakeholders from the oil and gas industry and relevant government institutions to address operational challenges, strengthen collaboration and expand indigenous participation across Nigeria’s energy value chain.

Speaking at the retreat, the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, represented by the Senior Technical Adviser and Director of Project Certification and Authorisation, Engr. Austin Uzoka, identified commitment, technology and financing as critical to building a sustainable Nigerian content ecosystem.

Ogbe challenged industry stakeholders to look beyond statutory obligations and address the long-term requirements for sustaining industrial investments, strengthening domestic supply chains and retaining more economic value within the country.

He said the development of world-class industrial facilities must be matched by investments in local capabilities to operate, maintain and support them.

Drawing attention to the challenges facing Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries, he stressed the need to build the domestic supply chains required to sustain the operations of the Dangote Refinery and other critical industrial assets.

According to him, Nigeria must develop the capacity to supply the goods, works and services required by major industrial facilities rather than depend excessively on foreign expertise and external suppliers.

He warned that weak domestic supply chains could undermine the economic benefits of industrial investments by allowing a substantial proportion of the resulting value to flow outside the country.

Ogbe also emphasised the importance of developing Nigerian expertise in industrial operations, maintenance and technology, arguing that local content must deliver capabilities that remain within the country over the long term.

On financing, he identified high interest rates and delays in accessing funds as significant constraints facing indigenous businesses seeking to execute projects, expand operations and compete effectively in the oil and gas industry.

He urged stakeholders to consider how Nigeria could nurture a new generation of large-scale indigenous industrialists and support investors seeking to establish refineries and related industrial facilities.

While acknowledging Dangote Group’s contribution to industrial development, he called for a supportive business environment in which emerging Nigerian investors could also succeed.

He said a stronger domestic refining industry would enhance Nigeria’s position in the regional and global oil and gas markets.

NCDMB reiterated its commitment to creating an enabling environment for Nigerian businesses to develop technical competence, access industry opportunities and compete across the oil and gas value chain.

In a separate presentation, the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics at NCDMB and Chairman of the NCDMB/Dangote JTC, Omomehin Ajimijaye, urged contractors, vendors and service providers operating within the Dangote business ecosystem to comply with Nigerian content requirements and register on the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Joint Qualification System (NOGICJQS).

He said the Board’s regulatory framework was designed to promote business growth and indigenous participation rather than create unnecessary bureaucratic obstacles.

Ajimijaye identified four key areas of compliance: Nigerian content planning, workforce localisation, local procurement and capacity development.

He explained that companies bidding for projects were expected to submit Nigerian content plans demonstrating how they intended to maximise indigenous participation.

Employers were also required to prioritise qualified Nigerians, procure locally available goods and services, and invest in skills development and technology transfer.

On expatriate employment, he said foreign personnel could be engaged where genuine skills gaps existed, but companies were expected to work with the Board to establish those gaps and develop succession plans to prepare Nigerians to assume the positions over time.

Ajimijaye described NOGICJQS as an important digital platform for supplier registration, prequalification, capacity verification and validation of technical expertise.

He said reliable industry data would enable NCDMB to identify skills shortages, connect businesses with qualified professionals and direct training investments towards areas of greatest need.

He commended Dangote Group for collaborating with the Board since around 2019 to develop Nigerian capacity through training at local and overseas institutions.

Some beneficiaries of the programmes, he said, had subsequently secured employment within the group’s businesses.

Ajimijaye also called for sustained investment in research and development to stimulate indigenous innovation, improve competitiveness and enable Nigerian companies to export technical expertise.

He disclosed that Nigerian content interventions had retained more than $10bn in the Nigerian economy, generated over 50,000 direct and indirect jobs, and supported more than 50 million man-hours of training.

However, he said in-country value retention stood at approximately 61 per cent, below the 70 per cent target, highlighting the need for stronger collaboration among regulators, operators and service providers.

He urged industry players to view Nigerian content as an opportunity to expand their businesses, develop technical expertise and strengthen the competitiveness of the domestic energy industry.

In his welcome address, the Group Vice President of Dangote Group, Edwin Devakumar, called for a fundamental shift from a compliance-driven approach to one based on national responsibility, ownership and commitment.

He argued that laws and regulations alone could not guarantee sustainable Nigerian content unless businesses, individuals and institutions genuinely embraced the responsibility of building the country’s productive capacity.

“For sustainable Nigerian content development to succeed, it must not be seen as a regulatory burden. Every individual must regard it as something they genuinely want to do from the bottom of their heart,” he said.

Devakumar maintained that local content should extend beyond sourcing raw materials to encompass skills transfer, workforce development and the growth of indigenous contractors into enterprises capable of executing increasingly complex projects.

The Director of Legal Services at NCDMB, Naboth Onyesoh, called for stronger coordination among government institutions to ensure that investment promotion, petroleum regulation and Nigerian content compliance worked together to advance national economic interests.

He said inter-agency engagement should clarify statutory responsibilities, eliminate unnecessary duplication and produce practical solutions to operational challenges.

Onyesoh addressed the regulatory responsibilities of the Oil and Gas Free Zones Authority (OGFZA), explaining that its investment-promotion mandate did not supersede the statutory responsibilities of other government institutions.

He said incentives designed to attract investment and improve the ease of doing business in free zones did not exempt operators from applicable federal laws.

Depending on the nature of their operations, petroleum businesses remained subject to the relevant requirements of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and NCDMB.

He also highlighted the roles of the Central Bank of Nigeria, customs and immigration authorities in facilitating financial transactions, monitoring goods and ensuring compliance with applicable regulations.

Reaffirming the importance of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act, 2010, Onyesoh said the legislation remained central to promoting indigenous participation, technology transfer, employment and domestic value retention.

He cautioned against interpretations of free-zone incentives that could exclude companies operating within the zones from contributing to local capacity development and the growth of Nigerian businesses.

“An incentive regime is a business advantage; it is not a regulatory exception,” he said.

Onyesoh also highlighted the Board’s efforts to strengthen indigenous maritime capacity through the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund, which supports local companies in acquiring vessels and expanding their operations.

He disclosed that the Nigerian Content Fund was partnering with Nigeria LNG Limited on a shipyard project at Snake Island to strengthen domestic industrial capacity.

He also commended the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency for collaborating with NCDMB on vessel verification and indigenous participation in maritime operations.

Onyesoh urged OGFZA and other government agencies to intensify engagement, share information and jointly resolve operational challenges.

He said coordinated regulation would improve the ease of doing business, strengthen investor confidence, create jobs and ensure that Nigeria derived greater economic benefits from its oil and gas resources.

Earlier, the Alternate Chairperson of the NCDMB/Dangote JTC, Ebele Oputa, described the retreat as a gathering of stakeholders united by the objective of placing Nigerians at the centre of industrial development.

She acknowledged the contributions of participating government agencies and commended Devakumar for his longstanding commitment to Nigeria and investment in young Nigerians.

Oputa noted that his more than 33 years in the country and contributions to Nigerian content development had helped advance the collaboration between the Board and Dangote Group.

By Ambrose Nnaji

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has urged Nigerian entrepreneurs and creative industry practitioners to build globally competitive businesses, stressing that Africa must take responsibility for its economic prosperity rather than depend on foreign investors.

Dangote spoke while hosting leading figures from Nigeria’s creative industry at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals complex, in Lagos. He also disclosed that the Group was considering revising upwards its $100 billion Vision 2030 target as its industrial investments and growth ambitions expand.

The delegation, comprising Nollywood actors, content creators, comedians and other entertainment personalities, toured the industrial complex before participating in an interactive session with the industrialist on entrepreneurship, innovation, ambition and legacy.

Addressing the creative, Dangote urged Nigerians to combine their creativity and entrepreneurial drive with discipline, perseverance and the courage to pursue ambitious projects.

He said lasting success should be measured not merely by personal wealth but also by the businesses established, employment opportunities created and contributions made to society.

“It is not just about money; it is about legacy. We have often been taken for granted, and in many ways, we have contributed to that by waiting for foreigners to come and make our continent prosperous. That will never happen. We must take responsibility for building Africa’s prosperity ourselves,” he said.

On the Group’s long-term growth ambitions, Dangote said its $100 billion Vision 2030 target was being reconsidered, with a revised ambition expected to be unveiled in January.

“We realised that our Vision 2030 target was too modest. We are working towards unveiling a new vision in January, with a revised target that reflects our ambition to achieve far more than US$100 billion,” he said.

He explained that the Group’s industrial expansion reflected its determination to build enduring institutions, strengthen Africa’s productive capacity and demonstrate that African businesses could compete successfully in global markets.

Drawing lessons from Singapore’s economic transformation, Dangote said countries could overcome difficult beginnings through deliberate investment, entrepreneurship and sustained efforts to develop domestic capabilities.

He challenged Nigerian entrepreneurs to discard limiting assumptions about what they could achieve, noting that transformative accomplishments often required the courage to pursue ideas others considered impossible.

Reflecting on his entrepreneurial journey and the development of the refinery, Dangote identified perseverance, disciplined execution and sound judgement as essential ingredients of business success.

He, however, cautioned that ambition must be balanced with sound commercial decisions, particularly when an investment proves difficult to sustain.

“Before embarking on any venture, you must carefully consider all the issues involved. We have made mistakes too, and I share these experiences so others can learn from them,” he said.

“One important lesson is never to keep putting good money into a bad investment. Some situations are simply too difficult to turn around, no matter how much you invest.”

Turning to the creative industry, Dangote commended Nigerian entertainers for building an international presence despite operating in a challenging business environment and receiving limited government support.

He described Nollywood’s growing global influence as evidence of Nigeria’s creative potential, urging practitioners to consolidate their achievements through stronger business structures, innovation and collaboration.

According to him, the industry’s next phase of growth should extend beyond international recognition to building sustainable enterprises, creating employment and strengthening Nigeria’s position in the global creative economy.

Veteran Nollywood actor Richard Mofe-Damijo, who moderated the interactive session, praised Dangote’s accomplishments, describing his industrial investments as an enduring contribution to Nigeria’s development.

“Your legacy has already been built, and its continuation is assured. You deserve all the praise and recognition you have received for what you have accomplished,” RMD said.

Nollywood actor Abdullateef Adedimeji described the visit as an inspiration, saying the scale of the refinery had challenged him to raise his ambitions and pursue greater accomplishments in the creative industry.

“Coming here today is a source of motivation for us. As someone in the film industry, this experience inspires me to push beyond my limits, broaden my imagination and strive for greater achievements, including making a more meaningful impact in my community,” he said.

Adedimeji also called for greater collaboration among Nollywood practitioners, drawing lessons from the coordination and partnerships underpinning Dangote’s industrial operations.

“That is what we need in Nollywood. The more we collaborate, the stronger and more successful we become,” he said.